Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
